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MAY 18,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

MADNESS IN LIBERAL NEW YORK – FROM THE COLLEGE FIX:   Almost certainly unbeknownst to the average New Yorker – a demographic not known for overweening politeness (I know, I married one) – the New York City Commission on Human Rights is demanding that employers, landlords, professionals and “all businesses” (in Volokh’s reading) ask people their preferred gender pronoun from their first interaction.  The “legal guidance” in part:  a. Intentional or repeated refusal to use an individual’s preferred name, pronoun or title. For example, repeatedly calling a transgender woman “him” or “Mr.” after she has made clear which pronouns and title she uses …Covered entities may avoid violations of the NYCHRL by creating a policy of asking everyone what their preferred gender pronoun is so that no individual is singled out for such questions and by updating their systems to allow all individuals to self-identify their names and genders. They should not limit the options for identification to male and female only.  This will of course lower the rising crime rate and improve reading in the public schools.

NO APPLAUSE FOR THE ECONOMY – FROM CNBC:   Goldman Sachs has downgraded its outlook on equities to "neutral" over the next 12 months, saying there's no particular reason to own them.  "Until we see sustained signals of growth recovery, we do not feel comfortable taking equity risk, particularly as valuations are near peak levels," Goldman said in a note Tuesday.  Goldman downgraded Europe and Japan equities to "neutral" over a 12-month view, while upgrading U.S. equities to "neutral."  The negative economic signs are coming in every day.  This helps Trump and hurts Hillary, who must at least pay lip service to the economic genius of Barack Obama. 

OUR NEW "MODERATE" FRIEND – FROM ALGEMEINER:    Iranian police have arrested eight people in a new crackdown on models who post images of themselves online without their hair covered, state media reported Monday, part of a larger cultural struggle in the Islamic Republic over the country’s future.  The arrests follow the detentions of artists, poets, journalists and activists as moderate President Hassan Rouhani’s administration secured a landmark nuclear deal with world powers.  Nothing to see, nothing to see.  The nuclear deal is part of Obama's legacy, and what could be more important?

May 18,  2016     Permalink

TRUMP'S NUMBERS UP – AT 11:48 A.M. ET:  With the Democratic Party showing serious internal strains, poll numbers for Donald Trump are improving.  From The Hill: 

Donald Trump appears to be making rapid progress in unifying Republican voters behind his presidential bid even as Democratic discord between backers of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders reaches new highs.

An NBC News/SurveyMonkey poll released Tuesday morning showed Trump and Clinton performing at exactly the same level within their respective parties. Each commanded 87 percent support.

The poll also suggested that hopes among Democrats of an easy win over Trump are misplaced. Tuesday’s poll had Clinton with an edge of just 3 points in a hypothetical match-up: The former secretary of State led Trump 48 percent to 45 percent.

The numbers track close to polls near this point in the 2012 presidential election.

A Gallup poll conducted in March 2012, for example, saw President Obama winning the allegiance of the same proportion of Democrats as Clinton is now: 87 percent.

Trump, for his part, may be outperforming Mitt Romney, who took 84 percent support among Republicans in the March 2012 poll.

To be sure, it’s early. Polling numbers at this point in an election cycle can be significantly out of line with the results in November.

But there are warning signs for Clinton, nonetheless.

While Romney, the Bush family and a few GOP officeholders are keeping a distance from Trump, the real estate mogul does not appear to have a huge disadvantage in seeking to unify Republican voters. That means Clinton will need to stoke enthusiasm among all parts of the Democratic base if she becomes the nominee.

COMMENT:  It's going to be a bitter campaign.  Trump, though, is doing something Romney never did – fighting back against a biased press.  That in itself may be a major story in the months ahead, as the usual suspects among journalists line up behind Hillary.

May 18, 2016       Permalink

MORE ECONOMIC WOBBLING – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:   Many recent economic signs are troubling.  Some more disturbing news has come in.  This could have a profound effect on the election if it continues.  From AP:

Target's first-quarter profit easily beat Wall Street expectations, but slowing sales at the Minneapolis retailer and across much of the retail sector is creating a lot of unease.

Target's weak store sales and its expectations for this quarter, released Wednesday, pushed shares down 9 percent in morning trading. Shares of almost every retailer followed suit in what is shaping up to be a miserable year.

Target earned $632 million, or $1.05 per share, for the three months ended April 30. That compares with $635 million, or 98 cents per share, a year ago.

Stripping out one-time items, earnings were $1.29 per share, which was much better than the $1.19 per share projected on Wall Street, according to a FactSet survey.

But revenue slipped to $16.2 billion from $17.12 billion, which was shy of expectations.

Sales at stores opened at least a year rose 1.2 percent, but that's below the increase of 1.6 percent that was expected. Industry analysts watch this figure closely when determining a retailer's health because removes the volatility of stores recently opened or closed.

Before Target, major department stores like Macy's Inc., J.C. Penney Co. and Kohl's Corp. all posted weak first-quarter sales with pressure rising from off-priced stores like T.J. Maxx and also Amazon.com.

COMMENT:  The employment picture is also wobbly.  Hillary, not always the swiftest candidate, said a few days ago that she'd appoint her husband to "revitalize" the economy.  Obama must have loved that.  He's been telling we peasants that the economy is booming.  The Dems had better get on the same page.

May 18, 2016       Permalink

SCARY – AT 10:08 A.M. ET:  Yesterday's Democratic primaries were kind of a wash.  Hillary managed a small victory in Kentucky and Sanders won Oregon, but the delegates are given out proportionally, so Sanders gained maybe a tiny number of seats.  Bottom line, Hillary is within 100 delegate votes of the nomination. 

The scary side here is that Bernie Sanders is becoming increasingly strident and threatening, and some of his comrades, uh, I mean supporters, are out of control.  From an editorial in the Sacramento Bee: 

A lot of Democrats don’t want to admit it, but Donald Trump isn’t the only presidential candidate playing with fire and recklessly courting an angry mob.

For the latest round of curse-word hurling, chair throwing, social-media stalking and conspiracy-theory swapping, look no further than the supporters of Bernie Sanders.

Over the weekend, dozens of Sanders devotees lost their minds after the Nevada Democratic Party, meeting for its convention in Las Vegas, awarded a majority of delegates to front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Convinced that the establishment had rigged the rules and that Sanders delegates had been excluded for unfair reasons, they booed and traded barbs with people on stage, including Clinton surrogate and keynote speaker U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

The convention ended abruptly, descending into chaos that was captured for the world to relive on Facebook and YouTube.

Death threats and vandalism followed, prompting Nevada Democratic Party offices to close on Monday and its chairwoman, Roberta Lange, to release some downright disgusting voicemails and text messages she had received from Sanders supporters. She also reported threats against her grandchildren.

The episode had the reek of Trump rallies, where threats, insults and sucker punches to defend the presumptive Republican nominee have been common. Yet looking back at the hundreds of Sanders supporters who descended on a Clinton rally in East Los Angeles earlier this month to intimidate her supporters, making one little girl cry, it now seems inevitable that the same kind of violent eruption would afflict those “feeling the Bern.”

That’s a scary prospect for a divided political party that is going to need to rediscover its united front in time for the November election. Like the Republicans whose unity was shredded by Trump’s rise, the Democrats now face the prospect of an internal revolt.

COMMENT:  The disruptions in the Democratic Party are more serious.  They are coming from the fringe left, which has a history of violence.  Our eagle-eyed reporters have not yet figured out that Bernie Sanders appeals to the same kind of people who wanted the United States to lose in Vietnam, and even in the war on terror.

May 18,  2016     Permalink

MAY 17,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

STILL ONE MORE CAUSE – FROM FOX:   A self-proclaimed "fat activist" gave college kids in Minnesota yet another issue to angrily protest: Thin privilege.  To mark “International No Diet Day,” the University of Minnesota's School of Public Health invited Virgie Tovar, a Cal-Berkeley lecturer and “fat activist,” to instruct America’s future nutritionists, dietitians and social workers on the finer points of “fat oppression.”  I'm so glad I've been sensitized.  Pass the hot fudge.

GREAT MOMENTS IN ROMANCE – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:   A Saudi Arabian bride spent her wedding night texting her pals instead of consummating her marriage — so her husband filed for a divorce just hours after they were hitched.  The couple was sitting in a hotel room following their ceremony in Jeddah when the bride got busy with her phone, responding to congratulatory messages from her friends rather than paying attention to her new mate, Saudi media reported.  “The groom tried to get closer with her and more intimate, but he was shocked when she ignored him, not responding to his words or action,” a relative told Al Watan, a daily newspaper in Saudi. “When he asked her if her friends were more important than he was, the bride answered that they were.”  Her response infuriated her husband, who walked out on his wife and said he was ending their short union.  An honest, independent woman.  Put her into the refugee stream and send her here.

CLINTON SQUEAKS BY IN KENTUCKY – FROM BBC:  US Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has declared victory in the Kentucky primary as she moves nearer the presidential nomination.  With most of the votes counted in the state and less than 0.5% ahead, Mrs Clinton was declared the unofficial winner by one state official.  In the night's other primary contest Senator Bernie Sanders won in Oregon.  Front-runner Mrs Clinton is almost certain to secure the nomination in July, with a significant delegate lead.  But she's obviously a weak candidate, having trouble in her own party. 

May 17, 2016       Permalink

THE SECRETARY REGRETS – AT 10:14 A.M. ET:  The French government, misguided in my view, is trying to arrange a peace conference for the Mideast to advance Arab-Israeli peace.  One key question is whether the United States will attend.  Our policy has always been that the parties must negotiate peace themselves.  Now Washington is, properly, stalling, which has forced the French to postpone.  It would be best if the idea died a slow death.  Only the Israelis and Palestinians can settle this bitter dispute.  From the Jerusalem Post: 

France on Tuesday agreed to delay the May 30th launch of its new Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative until some time this summer to allow for the US to attend.

It had intended to hold a ministerial meeting at the end of the month with representatives from some 20 countries — not including the Israelis and Palestinians — to lay the groundwork for a larger international peace conference in the fall.

The Palestinians have welcomed the initiative and the Israelis have opposed it. But the US, which has led all past Israeli-Palestinian peace processes has yet to formally state a position on the matter.

It had initially informed France that it could not attend for scheduling reasons.

During a brief visit to Israel on Sunday French Foreign Minister Jean Marc Ayrault said that his government would be happy to reschedule the event to accommodate US Secretary of State John Kerry.

COMMENT:  There is justifiable fear among Israelis that the Obama administration will stab Israel in the back in Obama's final months in office, payback for Israel's opposition to the Iran nuclear deal.  It's the kind of thing Obama would do, but we can hope that reason will prevail. 

It would be best if Kerry just doesn't attend the French conference, if in fact it's ever held.  We will elect a new president in less than six months.  That president will determine our policy in the Mideast, for better or worse.

May 17, 2016       Permalink

GOOD FOR THE PROFESSORS! – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:   One of the most dangerous offices in government is the Office for Civil Rights of the Department of Education.  It is that office that hands down the edicts that schools must follow to get federal aid – edicts about gender discrimination, sex offenses, and just about every other form of behavior.  Now some major law professors are in open rebellion at the extremism shown by that benignly named office.  From the College Fix: 

Some of the most prominent law professors around the country have signed an open letter calling on lawmakers to reject and replace the Department of Education’s “overly broad” definition of sexual harassment.

“In defense of the principle of fundamental fairness,” the professors also laid out a legal process for reviewing the sexual-misconduct regulations issued by the department’s Office for Civil Rights (OCR) that violate “constitutional law, judicial precedent and Administrative Procedure Act requirements.”

The letter, distributed by the due-process group Stop Abusive and Violent Environments, is signed by professors including Harvard’s Alan Dershowitz, Elizabeth Bartholet, Charles Donahue and Richard Parker; Richard Epstein of NYU and the University of Chicago; Donald Downs of the University of Wisconsin-Madison; Stephanos Bibas of the University of Pennsylvania; and Stanford’s Michael McConnell:

Some of us have witnessed the injustices resulting from institutions that downplay or ignore sexual harassment on their campuses, and we commend OCR for taking a proactive approach to this problem. In pursuing its objectives, however, OCR has unlawfully expanded the nature and scope of institutions’ responsibility to address sexual harassment, thereby compelling institutions to choose between fundamental fairness for students and their continued acceptance of federal funding.

With their repeated use of language such as “must,” “require” and “obligation,” OCR documents frequently make demands of colleges that not only have no “regulatory or statutory basis” but have “effectively nullified” core constitutional precedents, the professors write, littering the letter with footnotes.

COMMENT:  Read the whole story.  It's well worth it.  This office has become a monster, wreaking havoc in our colleges and universities, and even in public schools.  It is run by leftist radicals, made stronger by the influence of the Obama administration.  Its budget is about to be dramatically increased, despite major warnings from serious, authoritative people that it has overstepped its authority and has become a virtual dictator.

Let's see if conservatives have the spine to fight the menace.  I'm not all that optimistic.

May 17, 2016       Permalink

WOW – AT 9:16 A.M. ET:  How often does this happen?  From Fox:

The Nevada State Democratic Party warned the Democratic National Committee Monday that supporters of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders have displayed a "penchant for ... actual violence' and could disrupt this summer's Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia.

The allegation is the latest fallout from a divisive Nevada Democratic convention that had to be shut down Saturday night because security at the Paris Las Vegas hotel could no longer ensure order. The gathering closed with some Sanders supporters throwing chairs; later, some made death threats against state party chairwoman Roberta Lange.

Sanders' backers had been protesting convention rules that ultimately led to Hillary Clinton winning more pledged delegates. Clinton won the state's caucuses in February, 53-47, but Sanders backers hoped to pick up extra delegates by packing county and state party gatherings.

Sanders had released a statement Friday night asking supporters to work "together respectfully and constructively" at the convention. But the state party alleged in its letter to the co-chairs of the DNC Rules and By-laws committee, "The explosive situation arose in large part because a portion of the community of Sanders delegates arrived at the Nevada Democratic State Convention believing itself to be a vanguard intent upon sparking a street-fight rather than attending an orderly political party process."

COMMENT:  I love it, I love it.  Everyone is predicting chaos at the Republican National Convention, with the usual suspects rioting outside.  But maybe we'll get a real show from the Democrats when they meet in the heat of Philadelphia.  With Hillary as their nominee, they could use some pizzaz.

May 17,  2016     Permalink